Miami loves being at the top of lists. Best beaches. Best nightlife. Most international flights. But now we get to add a new crown jewel: world’s riskiest real estate bubble.
A new report from the Swiss banking giant UBS ranked Miami at the very top of 20 global cities in its annual Global Real Estate Bubble Index — meaning our overheated, over-priced, over-hyped housing market is now officially the most vulnerable in the world.
Congratulations to us!
This is what happens when you mix runaway insurance premiums, ballooning condo fees, climate risk, and developers who think they’re selling magic beans instead of bricks and mortar.
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The bubble bursting risk score was set at 1.73. Anything over 1.5 is “high risk.” It’s a little bit smaller than last year’s, but still the worst in the world. Median sale prices have dropped to $595,000 in July, down from $640,000 a year earlier. Homes are sitting unsold for months longer than they used to, and sellers are cutting deals below asking. There were 224,165 homes for sale in Florida in July, up 9.3 percent from the same time in 2024.
It’s a steep fall for a city that just a couple years ago was the poster child of the pandemic boom, flooded with remote workers fleeing lockdowns. Tech bros from California and New York snapped up Brickell condos like they were fresh bagels from Dyker Park Bagels. Back then, properties disappeared in bidding wars before the ink was dry. Now? Listings are piling up like sandbags before a hurricane.
UBS analysts warn that Miami probably won’t see a 2008-style collapse. There’s still that tax-friendly, coastal-paradise shine. But affordability is at an all-time low, speculation has divorced prices from reality, and Florida as a whole has shed more than $100 billion in housing market value in just the past year. Miami’s housing market reported the lowest price growth since 2012 at less than 2%.
And Miami isn’t alone. Tokyo and Zurich also landed in the “high risk” zone, while LA, Dubai and Amsterdam are considered “elevated.” But our Magic City stands out as the epicenter of volatility — once the boomtown of the pandemic, now a case study in how quickly the party can end when the bills come due.
So, Miami, pop the champagne if you want. We’re No. 1 again. Just don’t expect to find affordable housing when you stumble home.
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And you know what’s coming next: The mayor and commissioners will act like they didn’t see this report. Instead, they’ll blame their predecessors, Tallahassee, or even the condo boards — anyone but the developers and speculators who bankroll their campaigns.
Don’t be surprised if we see a ribbon-cutting for another luxury tower before anyone at City Hall admits the market is teetering.
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